Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 23.318659 25.606253 28.175716 31.309720 35.077609 39.527607 45.285281
2025-02-02 20.078044 23.048870 26.661400 31.500193 38.022226 46.866594 60.516693
2025-02-09 17.967404 21.304517 25.611928 31.831392 41.088353 55.419446 82.271584
2025-02-16 16.369464 19.886607 24.639222 31.930882 43.754927 64.511399 112.654087
2025-02-23 14.997469 18.545256 23.505298 31.480968 45.353581 72.589671 151.489823
2025-03-02 14.032602 17.626194 22.806364 31.507432 47.714203 83.538004 221.158307
2025-03-09 13.173901 16.752824 22.039189 31.242284 49.421938 94.295892 333.415115
2025-03-16 12.429451 15.967301 21.300080 30.871651 50.790607 105.434198 543.508564
2025-03-23 11.800773 15.294914 20.657058 30.550078 52.166274 118.127159 1072.664820
2025-03-30 11.276043 14.734769 20.131603 30.351595 53.773946 133.770109 3811.513015
2025-04-06 10.719970 14.085517 19.396579 29.636568 53.913418 144.257551 626881.826650
2025-04-13 10.574707 14.060548 19.698084 31.009980 60.010144 194.601586 NaN
2025-04-20 10.164951 13.594897 19.210043 30.707521 61.430090 224.267953 NaN
2025-04-27 9.852810 13.266357 18.934149 30.819554 64.220181 276.338896 NaN
2025-05-04 9.591219 13.002797 18.749889 31.105105 67.772172 359.861937 NaN
2025-05-11 9.323476 12.712598 18.492090 31.185298 70.731166 470.806133 NaN
2025-05-18 9.011204 12.331655 18.038361 30.745874 71.635889 569.594083 NaN
2025-05-25 8.778773 12.072087 17.791591 30.768116 74.445784 798.809089 NaN
2025-06-01 8.530318 11.773116 17.449259 30.511870 76.054490 1097.150976 NaN
2025-06-08 8.287360 11.472465 17.084328 30.154981 77.132895 1537.814400 NaN
2025-06-15 8.065364 11.198095 16.753175 29.845522 78.364726 2402.330455 NaN
2025-06-22 7.869877 10.961034 16.480085 29.654524 80.156212 5015.906336 NaN
2025-06-29 7.633811 10.645031 16.035516 28.966614 79.197831 7562.785037 NaN